World News
Middle East — US-Israel War on Iran
The United States and Israel are now in their 33rd day of military operations against Iran, which began with surprise airstrikes on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several other officials. President Trump told allies to "get your own oil" and claimed the war could end within two to three weeks without a formal deal, though Iran's foreign minister denied any active negotiations are underway. Recent US-Israeli strikes hit military and energy facilities in central Iran on March 31, damaging a major religious site. Iran retaliated with a drone attack on Kuwait International Airport's fuel depots, causing a large fire. Crude oil fell below $100 per barrel on renewed de-escalation hopes.
美国和以色列对伊朗的军事行动已进入第33天。此次冲突始于2月28日的突袭，最高领袖哈梅内伊在空袭中遇难。特朗普总统告知盟友"自己解决石油问题"，并声称战争可在2至3周内结束，无需正式协议。然而伊朗外长否认双方存在任何谈判。伊朗以无人机袭击科威特国际机场燃料库予以报复，造成大规模火灾。受降级预期提振，国际油价跌至每桶100美元以下。
Economy — US Tariffs and Global Trade Slowdown
Following a February 20 Supreme Court ruling that struck down IEEPA-based tariffs, President Trump imposed a new 15% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The Tax Foundation estimates the tariff package costs the average US household approximately $700. Global trade growth is forecast to slow significantly in 2026, with Morgan Stanley projecting world GDP growth at 3.2% and US growth at just 1.8%. China's growth is forecast to decline to around 4.2% amid weak domestic demand and continued trade friction.
美国最高法院于2月20日裁定基于《国际紧急经济权力法》的关税无效后，特朗普依据1974年《贸易法》第122条重新征收15%关税。税务基金会估计，该关税政策平均每个美国家庭负担约700美元。全球贸易增速料将在2026年大幅放缓，摩根士丹利预测全球GDP增速为3.2%，美国仅为1.8%。中国经济增速预计降至4.2%左右。
North America — US Political Landscape
The Iran war and tariff battles are reshaping US domestic politics ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Trump has threatened to pull the United States out of NATO as part of pressure on European allies over defense spending and energy policy. His approval ratings remain divided along partisan lines, while the economic impact of energy disruption and tariffs begins to weigh on consumer sentiment.
伊朗战争和关税争端正在重塑美国国内政治格局，2026年中期选举日益临近。特朗普以此向欧洲盟国施压，要求其增加国防开支并自行解决能源问题，并以退出北约相威胁。受能源中断和关税政策影响，消费者信心指数承压。
East Asia — Japan's Strike Capability and Cross-Strait Developments
Japan is set to deploy weapons capable of striking adversaries on their own soil for the first time since 1945, a landmark shift in its postwar security posture driven by rising concerns over China and North Korea. Separately, KMT Chairman Cheng Li-wen is scheduled to visit mainland China from April 7–12, covering Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Beijing — the first sitting KMT chairman visit since 2015. Beijing has framed the visit as evidence of willingness for cross-strait dialogue.
日本将首次部署可打击境外目标的武器，这是二战结束以来日本安全政策的重大转变，背后是对中国和朝鲜威胁的持续担忧。与此同时，台湾国民党主席郑立文定于4月7日至12日赴大陆访问，行程涵盖江苏、上海和北京，这是自2015年以来首位现任国民党主席的大陆之行。北京将此次访问定性为推动两岸对话的积极信号。
Europe — Energy Crisis and Defense Buildup
European governments are scrambling to cushion the economic blow from the US-Israel-Iran conflict, which has choked off roughly one-fifth of global oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Shell's CEO warned that fuel shortages could hit Europe as early as April, with aviation fuel prices already doubling and diesel expected to follow. Germany's growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been sharply cut. Across the continent, governments are raising defense spending above 2% of GDP, with Germany pushing NATO's target to 5%.
美以伊冲突封锁了霍尔木兹海峡约五分之一的全球石油供应，欧洲各国政府正在紧急应对能源冲击。壳牌首席执行官警告称，最早4月欧洲可能出现燃料短缺，航空燃油价格已翻倍，柴油价格预计跟涨。德国2026至2027年增长预测大幅下调。欧洲各国纷纷将国防开支提升至GDP的2%以上，德国力推北约将目标提高至5%。
Southeast Asia — Indonesia, Malaysia, and Regional Diplomacy
Indonesia and Malaysia have elevated their international profiles through active engagement in Muslim affairs, deploying humanitarian convoys and making high-profile statements amid the Iran conflict. Pakistan and Afghanistan's Taliban government have resumed peace talks in China, reflecting Beijing's continued mediation role in South and Central Asia.
在伊朗冲突背景下，印度尼西亚和马来西亚通过派遣人道主义车队、发表有影响力的声明，积极参与穆斯林事务，国际地位进一步提升。巴基斯坦和阿富汗塔利班政府在中国斡旋下恢复和平谈判，凸显北京在南亚和中亚的持续调解作用。
Science & Technology — AI Industry Reaches Maturity
OpenAI has surpassed $25 billion in annualized revenue and is taking early steps toward a public listing as early as late 2026. Rival Anthropic is approaching $19 billion. Google released Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, offering 2.5× faster response times at $0.25 per million input tokens. Industry analysts note a broad shift in AI from hype to pragmatism, with enterprise deployments and cost efficiency now the dominant themes. Hyundai Motor Group unveiled an expanded "AI+Robotics" roadmap in partnership with Boston Dynamics.
OpenAI年化营收突破250亿美元，并已开始为2026年底潜在IPO做准备；竞争对手Anthropic年化营收接近190亿美元。谷歌发布Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite模型，响应速度提升2.5倍，每百万输入令牌定价仅0.25美元。业界普遍认为AI正从炒作走向务实，企业级部署和成本效率成为主旋律。现代汽车集团与波士顿动力扩大合作，发布"AI+机器人"战略路线图。
South America — Brazil Elections and Argentina's Reform Path
Brazil will hold its presidential election in October 2026, with President Lula seeking a fourth term and facing a fragmented opposition. Argentina's President Milei scored a significant midterm victory, with La Libertad Avanza winning 40.84% in October elections and expanding to 64 Chamber seats. Annual inflation has fallen from 211% at his inauguration to 31.3%, and a $20 billion support package from the Trump administration has positioned Argentina as Washington's preferred Latin American partner.
巴西将于2026年10月举行总统大选，卢拉谋求第四任期，面对分散的反对派。阿根廷米莱总统在中期选举中取得重大胜利，自由前进党获得40.84%选票，众议院席位扩至64席。自其就任以来，年通胀率已从211%降至31.3%，特朗普政府提供的200亿美元支持使阿根廷成为华盛顿在拉美的首选伙伴。
Healthcare — Global Health Systems Under Strain
The dismantling of USAID and cuts to Western foreign aid are reversing decades of progress on vaccine-preventable diseases. Measles cases reached 10.3 million in 2023, up 20% from the prior year, with resurgences in meningitis and yellow fever particularly acute in Africa. H5N1 avian influenza has caused 71 human cases and two deaths in the US since 2024, drawing renewed monitoring attention. Global health experts cite "Disease X" preparedness as the defining challenge for 2026.
美国国际开发署被撤销、西方国家削减对外援助，正在逆转数十年来疫苗可预防疾病方面的进展。2023年麻疹病例达1030万例，同比增长20%，非洲地区脑膜炎和黄热病的卷土重来尤为严峻。自2024年以来，H5N1禽流感已在美国造成71例人类感染和2例死亡。全球卫生专家普遍将"X疾病"的应对准备视为2026年最重要的挑战。
Policy Signals
- 正确政绩观学习教育全面铺开：中央8个指导组已赴20个省级单位督导，各地区各部门分层分类推进学习整改，树立"为民造福是最大政绩"的核心导向，纠治形象工程、数据造假、新官不理旧账等政绩观偏差。
- 雄安新区高质量建设加速：习近平3月23日赴雄安考察，强调"北京非首都功能疏解集中承载地"定位，雄安国际空港正式投用，"雄安之眼"汇聚城市运行数据超400亿条，30家央企总部及子公司已迁驻，空天信息、人工智能、数字科技等新兴产业蓄势起势。
- 教育科技人才一体改革典型示范：上海交通大学、西安交通大学建校130周年，人民日报头版以"兴学强国"为主题，凸显高校教育链、人才链、创新链深度融合的政策导向；上交AI学科全球计算机领域排名第一，西交"并联式"校企攻关联合体已扩展至255家企业。
- 新型电网建设列为战略任务：李强3月30日至4月1日赴四川调研，强调发展水风光氢天然气多能互补，推进"安全可靠、绿色低碳、坚强韧性、智能灵活"新型电网，四川定位为"重要清洁能源基地"。
- 专利转化成效导向改革：全国2700余所高校科研机构134.9万件存量专利完成首次系统盘点，筛选68万件发明专利与46万家企业精准对接，政策导向从"重数量"转向"重质量、重实施"。
- 求是第07期：进出口平衡发展：特约评论员文章阐释推动进出口平衡发展必要性，强化应对外部挑战的"苦练内功"叙事，配合三位经济学家专访（黄茂兴、魏琪嘉、孙浦阳），呼应贸易摩擦背景下的战略定力。
Source: 人民日报 2026-04-02, 求是 2026年第07期
Finance Market
Data as of April 1, 2026 close (April 2 data pending)
| Index / Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,575.32 | +0.72% |
| Nasdaq | 21,840.95 | +1.16% |
| Dow Jones | 46,565.74 | +0.48% |
| SSE Composite | 3,948.55 | +1.46% |
| CSI 300 | 4,526.06 | +1.71% |
| HSI | — | ~+1.88% |
| Nikkei 225 | 53,739.68 | +5.24% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,364.79 | +1.85% |
| DAX | 23,298.89 | +2.73% |
| Brent Crude | $99.05 | -4.7% |
| WTI Crude | $97.33 | -4.0% |
| Gold | $4,765.20 | +1.85% |
| USD/CNY | 6.8728 | — |
Generated: 2026-04-02 14:33 UTC+8